Mafia Day Thread: Round 3

[Daz]

ROLE LIST
2 Mafioso = A member of the mafia who decides who to kill each night. They take it in turns to visit the player they are targeting to kill. Ruling note- if the mafia kill fails they will be informed that it failed, but not why it failed, meaning they do not know if it was due to night immunity or the player being healed by the doctor.
1 Consort = A member of the mafia who decides to roleblock one person each night, preventing that player's night action from being carried out if the player has one. Becomes a mafioso if all the mafiosos are dead. Ruling notes- Roleblocking works on the detective, tracker and doctor, but not the medium, because the medium's night action occurs before everyone else's resolves. If the roleblocked player has a night action that can be roleblocked then they will informed that they were roleblocked; if the player has no night action/cannot be roleblocked then they will not be informed since the roleblock wouldn't have done anything.
1 Doctor = An innocent who may heal a player to prevent them from being killed once every night. They may heal themselves twice. Ruling note- neither the doctor or the healed player will be told if the healed player was targeted by the mafia.
1 Detective = An innocent who may learn the faction (innocent, mafia, or neutral) of one player every night.
1 Medium = An innocent who may speak with all dead players during the night phase. They are immune from being killed for the first two night phases only. Ruling note- They will speak to dead players in a chat separate to the dead chat, so that dead players may continue to talk during the day phase.
1 Tracker = An innocent who may visit another player's house at night and see who visited that player. The roles in this game who can visit other people (excluding the tracker) are the mafioso, doctor, detective, vigilante and consort.
1 Vigilante = An innocent who may kill another player at night. This ability may be used one time only. If the vigilante kills an innocent player (as opposed to a neutral or mafia player) then the following night they will commit suicide and also die.
1 Executioner = A neutral whose win condition is to get a target town member lynched- their target will be randomly generated. The executioner is immune from being killed at night. If their target is killed at night, the executioner becomes a jester.
1 Jester = A neutral whose win condition is to be lynched. The jester is immune from being killed at night. If the jester succeeds at getting lynched they have the ability to kill one of the people who voted against them the previous day - this ability must be used.
4 Normal Town Members = An innocent without any special abilities.

Other useful info can be put here upon request!

 

[An Otaku]

I was taking a test when you all exploded into talking again. I make no claims as to who I'm aligned with or what I will be because somehow someone will undoubtedly put me or claim it wasn't me etc. and now as I'm saying this no matter what I do people are probably not going to agree with my decision.

You voted for both Trip and Matizze. I have no reason not to trust you, plus you never really gave off any suspicious vibes either. So... yeah. What Kiilgore said.

 

[IceQueen]

Well maybe I'm just that good at my role. I still abstain from saying

 

[Lost-and-Bewildered]

Voted Luster:
+Matizze[/spoiler]
If we cross-reference these two lists for most likely innocents, this is who we get: An Otaku, IceQueen, Kiilgore, Luster, and Pf.D (deceased). Conveniently enough that is four people, plus Vigil Joan, we have five. Whose left?
Lost-and-Bewildered, Starlighter, and Kimberlyn.

I am certain these are our Scum, neutral and mafia.

By the way, @Lost-and-Bewildered hasn't been online since Thursday so that pretty much confirms them a Neutral role (Post-Edit, provided the Innocent List is correct).

@Lost-and-Bewildered is fairly inative, and I have no clue how poften they come online, so IDK. His profile says 4 days ago, if that helps.

I'm not going to lie to you, I'm enjoying all of this attention right now~
Sorry for my absence everyone, it's been a mixture of my busy real-life adventures and the fact that it takes so long to read through all of your posts and formulate a response that will actually benefit the discussion and allow me to gather enough evidence to vote. I keep popping in to read a few posts, and then running out of time and being dragged away, and it sucks because I already struggle to get any information as I'm just a townie with no role (AGAIN...@Daz knows how salty I am about that). Anyway enough of my moaning, I'd just like to say that @An Otaku I'm sorry mate but you're wrong about my alignment, but I don't really have any proof of this obviously because I don't have a role...*shrug*

 

[Kiilgore]

@Lost-and-Bewildered
With what you have read, what are your current opinions?

Okay then @IceQueen
If you won't tell us your role (which is making me doubt townness In all honesty...) what susicions do you have.

@Luster I don't recall if you have or not, but what role do you claim? (and the if thoughts on kimber changed.)

 

[An Otaku]

I was taking a test when you all exploded into talking again. I make no claims as to who I'm aligned with or what I will be because somehow someone will undoubtedly put me or claim it wasn't me etc. and now as I'm saying this no matter what I do people are probably not going to agree with my decision.

We're all putting our necks on the line here. Next round? Town will have 3 left, at most. We need to win this round and we all need as much info as possible. If you are Detective or Medium, anything you have to say at all would be invaluable. We, and you, gain nothing by keeping quiet. Waiting for another night action just isn't an option because this is most likely our last chance. I really hope you'll do a reveal...

I'm not going to lie to you, I'm enjoying all of this attention right now~
Sorry for my absence everyone, it's been a mixture of my busy real-life adventures and the fact that it takes so long to read through all of your posts and formulate a response that will actually benefit the discussion and allow me to gather enough evidence to vote. I keep popping in to read a few posts, and then running out of time and being dragged away, and it sucks because I already struggle to get any information as I'm just a townie with no role (AGAIN...@Daz knows how salty I am about that). Anyway enough of my moaning, I'd just like to say that @An Otaku I'm sorry mate but you're wrong about my alignment, but I don't really have any proof of this obviously because I don't have a role...*shrug*

You're the Mafioso, or a Neutral, Lost. We all know it. But if you come forward.... I'll, well. I can give you solid anime recommendations, yeah?

 

[Lost-and-Bewildered]

@Lost-and-Bewildered
With what you have read, what are your current opinions?

I'm rather suspicious of Luster's behaviour so far personally, because of how unreliable he is when it becomes time to vote. Especially when trip was lynched, i mean, he changed his vote 3/4 times...I'm not sure, I just see red flags every time he posts and I'm still pondering my conclusion. @Ice Queen has been even more absent than I have in this game, showing up rarely with little to add, and although this may just be due to them being busy irl it also means I can't get a read on them and that makes me suspicious too.It's almost a shame, the main two people I was actually suspicious of after the execution were @Dipper and @Pf.D and they turned up dead in the morning, leaving me with practically nothing to go on again :/

You're the Mafioso, or a Neutral, Lost. We all know it. But if you come forward.... I'll, well. I can give you solid anime recommendations, yeah?

Did...did you just try to tell me my role? I thought @Daz was the GM here, unless there's some sort of power struggle I don't know about ;)

In all seriousness though @An Otaku, I would urge you on behalf of the town to reconsider your theory, otherwise you're going to end up trying to lynch a townie by mistake. I have no evidence for this because I don't have a power role, so this is the last time I'll say this to prevent a never-ending loop of "No I'm not!" and "Oh yes you are!"- I am a humble townie.

 

[IceQueen]

If I was to say I had any hunches I'd be lying

 

[Lusterine]

Have we considered that the executioner's target may have died and now, they are jester?

@Kiilgore I'm convinced they're not town. @Lost-and-Bewildered lol. I've played a part in lynching both maf (esp Matizze) Interesting that you're suspecting me over people who havent contributed.

 

[Joan]

Okay...I thought I'd already mentioned this but apparently not in as much detail as I thought...@An Otaku I don't think your logic is sound here. Sure, cross-referencing vote lists is one way to catch potential scum, but right now, you're treating it like it's our only option and it's infallible. Which it isn't. The way you're thinking proves it--your suspicion is entirely directed toward people who fit into your vote list theory, to the point of making flat accusations and refusing to believe anything to the contrary. Right now? The maf could be --and may be--fooling you easily.

Just something to think about...

@Luster Now that you mention it, that is a very real possibility. I remember reading a post that made me think "huh...if Star hadn't already revealed as Jester, I would think this person was a Jester..."
I'll have to find that again, methinks.

 

[Joan]

@An Otaku since my tag apparently didn't work -_-

 

[Joan]

Also @IceQueen Otaku and Kiilgore are right when they say you really should reveal, and not revealing right now is incredibly suspicious. :/

 

[Joan]

I was taking a test when you all exploded into talking again. I make no claims as to who I'm aligned with or what I will be because somehow someone will undoubtedly put me or claim it wasn't me etc. and now as I'm saying this no matter what I do people are probably not going to agree with my decision.

Looking back, this is the "jester-y" post I mentioned. Though, thinking about it, Icey's always gone with the flow as far as lynches go...hmmm.

 

[An Otaku]

Okay...I thought I'd already mentioned this but apparently not in as much detail as I thought...@An Otaku I don't think your logic is sound here. Sure, cross-referencing vote lists is one way to catch potential scum, but right now, you're treating it like it's our only option and it's infallible. Which it isn't. The way you're thinking proves it--your suspicion is entirely directed toward people who fit into your vote list theory, to the point of making flat accusations and refusing to believe anything to the contrary. Right now? The maf could be --and may be--fooling you easily.

Just something to think about...

@Luster Now that you mention it, that is a very real possibility. I remember reading a post that made me think "huh...if Star hadn't already revealed as Jester, I would think this person was a Jester..."
I'll have to find that again, methinks.

Let's pretend my theory, also @Kiilgore 's theory (I think), is wrong. What would this mean? The Mafia would've had to commit to killing their two partners, with the only positive being they gain a (likely short-lived) trustworthy reputation. Now our current situation works out great for this plan with just 5 townies left, but there's no way the Mafia could've planned for two townies dying last night. We should've had 6 town, and if we did we wouldn't have to put everything on the line the way we are right now.

I mean, I know I'm saying all this, but... my point isn't to say the vigilante made a mistake. My point is that this situation we're in? Its the only way a Mafioso could vote for both their allies and still wind up on top, but there's no way they could have predicted this. As a Mafioso, getting one of your allies lynched isn't a horrible plan... but both? That's too crazy. And I've said some pretty crazy stuff this game...

But you've still got a point. I also get suspicious just over being too trusting of something, that's sorta why I made a case against Dipper (RIP...). But even so, I'm not the only one being too trusting of something, no? Have you yourself considered the "what if" about Kimberlyn, or do you plainly assume there's nothing suspicious about her activities?

Not to mention... my refusing to believe anything to the contrary. Well, we have three scum left (counting Neutrals). Am I supposed to expect the truth from these people if confronted? This is a game of deception. Lies are less than second nature, for everyone. Anyways. I guess I am treating it sorta like its our only option, but that's only because the results speak for themselves. Half the people I trusted are either dead from Night Kills, or voted 2 for 2 against the Mafia. To be fair though, I don't think I would've hard-lined after my vote list theory if the numbers hadn't lined up so perfectly. See, if Dipper were still alive, that would throw a wrench into the idea. But nope. We got exactly 4 innocents +1 incredibly likely townie based on role-reveal and because I've seen how you've acted towards Pf.D, there's just no way you're lying about being the Vigil. So now we have 5, the exact number of Innocents still alive. Meanwhile... the people who didn't vote for Scum twice, or even once? Just so happens there's three of them left, and one's already confessed to being the Jester (which I will believe because Kiilgore told me too, and I trust their insight).

 

[Lusterine]

Killing one is reasonable enough, but lynching two of your members is a super bad play.

 

[Lusterine]

@Joan any possible reconsideration on @Kimberlyn's alignment?

While the trip lynch does not sufficiently label a maf, the second does to a certain degree.

 

[Joan]

Honestly, I don't know what to think right now, and I'm in recovery from a dentist trip and fighting off illness right now. All I can say is I know why and when Kim has been absent from everything, and it lines up pretty exactly with what she's said and shown here. I also know that the stuff she's done so far lines up with her normal personality pretty well. I also know that she's not really here to say anything right now because she's moving into college and all that jazz. So...I dunno. I just think that you guys are stuck in a logical fallacy as far as thinking that there's absolutely no way that the maf voted both times. That, or you know it's a fallacy and we're being played. ...I'm paranoid sometimes, okay?

Really, though...if our maf is doing what I think they may be doing right now, they're incredibly smart and good at predicting people. But I'm probably wrong...

Thinking about it, though, it's not such a long shot for maf to have voted for both Trip and Matizze. On the one hand, they may not have expected the Matizze vote to go through--if I recall correctly, more than a couple people expressed surprise at that, and I know it surprised me how quickly it went through. On the other hand, it would honestly be genius, since y'all definitely don't suspect anybody that voted for both...and, well, think about it. With two maf down, what would you do as a vigilante? I know I went ahead and shot, because if I hit the right person, we would have won, and the numbers seemed decent at the time. However, I was banking on a successful heal for one part, and I thought I might be hitting a neutral role for the other part. Plus I'm not great at doing that kind of math.

Anyway, what I'm trying to say is, the maf could be that smart. They may not be, either, but my mind goes places like these with this game. <_< I'm probably just paranoid, but meh.

 

[Joan]

There's also the part where every single person who ended up on your scum list has something that concerns me.
Star-Revealed, has no way or reason to be lying at this point from what I can tell.
Kim-Has been largely absent for good reasons and seems to have her normal personality.
Lost-Was largely absent, as is normal for Lost judging by his roleplay activity and activity in previous mafia games. Knows Daz IRL, so could have given night action that way or whatever, but wouldn't have been able to follow our actions closely at all.

 

[Daz]

The discussion phase is over and it is now the voting phase. The voting phase shall end on Monday at 7:30pm (BST). Currently 5 votes are needed to kill someone.

 

[An Otaku]

I'm going to do my best to offer a read on everyone still alive, and suggest the best candidates for lynching. But do realize, all, this is our last chance for Town to win no matter what. We lynch wrong, we lose. We don't lynch, we lose. So... let's do our best to get it right!

Otaku's Innocent List

@Luster : voted twice for Maf. Led the vote on Matizze, something I wasn't sure about but worked out great. Also pulled back during trip vote on my "Sorry, chums" post, most likely out of fear I was the EXEC, which would mean trip's innocence. A Maf would've let that slide, let a would-be townie get lynched. Luster didn't, or at least spoke up about it.
Innocent Status: Very likely

@Kiilgore : voted twice for Maf. Has consistently called me (Otaku) out for worrisome ideas, and rightly so. Was Maf last two games, statistics say it's improbable for a three times in a row Maf...
Innocent Status: Likely

@IceQueen : voted twice for Maf. Called out for initial theorizers, I believe. Which is what most likely got Luckycoolhawk killed, providing helpful thought patterns that is. The two points are not inherently linked. Has since been comparatively quiet and refused to do a role reveal on our last hope for victory.
Innocent Status: Probable/Questionable

@An Otaku : voted twice for Maf. Headlined for Trip lynch, and temporarily pulled back on Matizze vote out of fear. Acted questionable in early rounds, in possible connection with Trip(Maf) and Kimberlyn(???).
Innocent Status: *you decide*

special case

@Joan : didn't net placement on Otaku's Innocent List due to only lynch voting Trip. Was, however, outspokenly suspicious of Pf.D whom was extremely likely of being Vigilante-killed. Immediately after, Joan role claimed Vigil and apologized.
Innocent Status: Very Likely

Otaku's Scum List

@Kimberlyn : never voted for Maf. Had questionable discourse with Trip(Maf), and Otaku(?). Called for wariness on Trip being Doctor/Jester as a last possible defense for Trip. No posts regarding Matizze to my knowledge.
Innocent Status: Unlikely

@Lost-and-Bewildered : voted for Trip, eventually. Has been largely silent entire game. Claimed innocence. Has been accused by Otaku heavily.
Innocent Status: Unlikely

@Starlighter : never voted for Maf. Has been largely silent whole game, also claimed to be very busy IRL, which was positively claimed by Joan(I believe). Role claimed Jester near finale, which was positively acknowledged by Kiilgore.
Innocent Status: Very Unlikely

To summarize the spoilers sections, I assert we have four most likely targets for being Scum Maf/Neutral: IceQueen, Kimberlyn, Starlighter, and Lost-and-Bewildered.
However, I am adamant we have NOT seen noticeable activity from either Jester or EXEC this whole game. EXEC candidates have mostly crumbled, but nothing at all on the Jester. This falls in line with Starlighter, who claimed Jester and has been mostly AFK. As for EXEC, both Kimberlyn and IceQueen have been active in-game but never did anything to suggest EXEC role, which leaves Lost as the most likely candidate.... but, some people believe me to be reaching on this point.

So, minus Jester Starlighter, we now have 3 most likely suspects for the last Mafioso: Kimberlyn, Lost-and-Bewildered, and IceQueen.


My personal thoughts are that it's unlikely for a Maf to commit to lynching both allies, but IceQueen's refusal to role reveal is concerning. Lost, while majorly AFK, could have been around to submit a night target yet I still believe to be EXEC merely because no one else seems likely to me, thereby meaning our EXEC (like the Jester) was AFK most of the game. Kimberlyn I have never trusted. Trip went out of his way to claim the Mafia wouldn't outwardly work together. If this is true, why would Trip just state their strategy? It's nonsensical, which says to me they initially planned to gang up in Day Thread in some fashion. Kimberlyn did respond to Trip's questionnaire and did agree with his points raised; she never voted for either Maf despite being present, and attempted to halt vote by supporting ideas of Doctor/Jester Trip.

In order of my best to least lynch targets, they are: Kimberlyn, then Lost, followed closely by IceQueen.

 

[An Otaku]

Alternatively.... @Joan is the last Mafioso, got lucky and killed the Vigilante last round, then opportunistically claimed Vigil to be in the perfect position for others to not suspect her. But... I, I dunno. Mainly saying this as a last-ditch claim to go "Ha! See? Im not crazy!!" And to save reputation as being a theorizer. Just in case....

Even so, I still recommend looking to Kimberlyn, Lost, and IceQueen for a lynch target.