MAFIA - DAY TIME

[Starlighter]

Well... you make a good argument. But you also have no proof that the mafia went with a no-friction strategy.... to be honest, there's a really simple way to settle this. I'm willing to gamble my innocence on the fact that no one is going to die in the night phase.

 

[Lost-and-Bewildered]

@The Tragedy your nomination for Kiilgore has been acknowledged.
@Kiilgore your nomination for The Tragedy has been acknowledged.
@Dipper your nomination for Kiilgore has been acknowledged.
@LuckycoolHawk9 your decision to abstain has been acknowledged.
@Starlighter, your nomination for The Tragedy has been acknowledged.
@Solaresque, I'm also confirming that I'm aware of your nomination for Dipper that Daz acknowledged.

 

[Lost-and-Bewildered]

Kiilgore has been voted to be lynched! His faction was...Mafia! The town rejoice as the day draws to a close and the night begins.

It is now the night phase. Please do not post here until the next day phase begins.

 

[Dipper]

Wow. You guys were right. Nice going. Congrats to Kiilgore for being so crafty. Congrats to Tragedy and Solaresque for picking up on the details.

I... probably shouldn't be saying that, but this was the most intense Mafia/Werewolf game I've ever done. And we've still got more to do.

 

[Daz]

It's a new dawn, it's a new day, but no new corpse. Nobody has died in the night.

Discussion may now begin. Discussion will end at 8:30pm 22nd February (GMT) unless there is a request to extend discussion time.

 

[Starlighter]

Surprise surprise XD

So, what do y'all make of this?

 

[The Tragedy]

Well so far my mind is still on @Starlighter and @Kiilgore having been in cahoots for mafia so starlighter is my main suspect​

 

[Vitreus]

I'm ecstatic my intuition actually served me well in that last vote! We're in a better position now. ^_^ Thanks for trusting us Dipper!! :)

And here we are! No deaths! I'm not shocked. Either a successful doc heal on The Tragedy's part (assuming that the whole thing regarding him and Kiilgore wasn't a ruse... I'm assuming it's not, based on the extent/legitimate helpfulness of his contributions, and I feel he is to be trusted, although I understand suspicions) or that mafia refrained. After all, killing Dipper (arguably our MVP at the current moment) isn't possible with the existence of a doctor (it's impossible to say whether mafia actually tried killing him or not... they wouldn't have bothered, if they thought The Tragedy's counterclaim was rightful enough (or if The Tragedy were mafia I guess lol)). But neither could The Tragedy be killed, as he is still a primary figure of suspicion according to Starlighter's opinion (who I am quite intent is our last mafia).

Say Tragedy really is the doctor however (which I truly do believe)? As long as he keeps healing The Mayor, technically this is a won game. In fact, the only way to lose this is by mislynch. Meaning mafia will not want to kill at night... they want to better their chances by relying on us to make the move for them. Otherwise, the game might end in a draw if no lynches/deaths are to happen.

Although if I were to be honest, if I were mafia, I would've killed me. I think I'm the least suspicious after Dipper, maybe. xD That said, based on my beliefs, it would be a good way to shut me up if I were right and that could raise suspicion (towards Starlighter, in this case, since I made it known ages ago and consistently enough that if there were someone I would vote in after Kiilgore, it would be Star). That, and it reduces the potential pool of mafia since the only confirmed townie is Dipper, a death would only confirm yet another townie existence and yeah, mafia doesn't want that.

That said @Dipper , you now can be certain that Tragedy/I are not a mafia team, and that one (if not both) of us are townies. Meaning we're not being chummy for anything other than the reason that we share in beliefs. And yet again, I'll align my views with The Tragedy, and am setting my sights on Hawk or Starlighter. Even if Hawk's been quiet lately (and abstained from making any vote), given the extent of the friction between Hawk and Kiilgore... I still don't think it's Hawk. Kiilgore had made a point of pointing fingers at anyone who didn't agree with him; Hawk, initially, with the aggravated comment about Kiilgore voting in the Mayor, The Tragedy, when he counterclaimed him and insisted he was mafia, and lastly me, yet ONLY when I started showing dissent and I too pressed that he were mafia. The only person who hardly faced the suspicions of Kiilgore was Star.

Star also went against the majority vote and continued with suspicions against The Tragedy. Maf not wanting to vote in maf... although had Star done so, it wouldn't have aligned with their prior views, which would've been suspicious enough. Hmm, a lot to consider here.

 

[LuckycoolHawk9]

So, I am going to break down my list of facts for now without any tags except on our actives. Here is what we know:

- @Starlighter can be escort, doctor, townie or mafia. Right now, heavy suspicison is on them as mafia and I neither agree or disagree with this point. They have persisted against @The Tragedy as final mafia.

-Thatguyinthestore or tigertruth was our investigator. Either way- it doesn't matter. Both of them were lynched by our mafia.

-@Dipper is our mayor.

- @Solaresque can be escort, doctor, townie or mafia. She/he ( I am too lazy to look up gender now) has found evidenced against our mafia- so it brings my suspicion down towards them. They also pointed out a perfect win strategy which I agree with.

-Myself, @LuckycoolHawk9 will be claiming townie. I am going to put that out here now. I have nothing unique about me.

- @The Tragedy claims to be doctor, but can be townie, mafia or escort. They have strong suspicion on @Starlighter.

So, I guess with all that, it would be easy enough to not vote and see where the next night takes up. The only thing that could truly decide this game is if someone steps up and claims escort or @Daz confirms they were one of our inactives or dead. But that seems unlikely since night 1 nobody dies which means that both our escort and doctor had to be alive then and at least one has to be alive now. Actually, I feel like the only way to know the answer is to go back to the start and figure out who healed who or who roleblocked the other mafia.

 

[The Tragedy]

Well the first night I protected myself as I didn't have a feel for who to protect so I just went with the safest options, night 2 I protected @LuckycoolHawk9, still having no clue but not wanting to just protect myself, night 3 protected @killgore, night 4 @Dipper since he was mayor and all

 

[LuckycoolHawk9]

So under this assumption- that means that most likely @The Tragedy was the target night 1 who didn't die. If the doctor healed no one but himself, it may be a fair guess.

Going back to reread the thread for a skimming routine, I noticed that long before our first mafia was caught, @Starlighter was picking me as mafia along with @The Tragedy. So, personally, I am slowly getting on board the Star is the other mafia train. That being said, if @The Tragedy is lying about being the doctor and Star is innocent, than we risk the possibility that our mayor could be killed and one more misvote could spell a town loss. Arguably, we could also have the other problem where the mafia lets the mayor live and his vote outweighs the voice of the only remaining townie causing a town loss.

So, @Starlighter @Dipper @The Tragedy and @Solaresque, do any of you have any theories?

 

[The Tragedy]

I say it's @Starlighter I feel like him and kiilgore were working together to try to get mislynches and slowly killing us off one by one

 

[Dipper]

Hm. I can honestly say that I've trusted @Solaresque since Kiilgore and am coming around to @LuckycoolHawk9 and @The Tragedy . While I'm hesitant to lynch at all, if you guys have reason to believe it's @Starlighter ... Well, I believe you. If not working with Kiilgore, then at least not working against them. The rest of you have been under their scrutiny before, but not Kiilgore as far as I can remember.

 

[The Tragedy]

I'm almost positive it's him, I think solar can be trusted as inno as can hawk I myself know in inno and you are as well leaving only star

 

[Daz]

So, I am going to break down my list of facts for now without any tags except on our actives. Here is what we know:

- @Starlighter can be escort, doctor, townie or mafia. Right now, heavy suspicison is on them as mafia and I neither agree or disagree with this point. They have persisted against @The Tragedy as final mafia.

-Thatguyinthestore or tigertruth was our investigator. Either way- it doesn't matter. Both of them were lynched by our mafia.

-@Dipper is our mayor.

- @Solaresque can be escort, doctor, townie or mafia. She/he ( I am too lazy to look up gender now) has found evidenced against our mafia- so it brings my suspicion down towards them. They also pointed out a perfect win strategy which I agree with.

-Myself, @LuckycoolHawk9 will be claiming townie. I am going to put that out here now. I have nothing unique about me.

- @The Tragedy claims to be doctor, but can be townie, mafia or escort. They have strong suspicion on @Starlighter.

So, I guess with all that, it would be easy enough to not vote and see where the next night takes up. The only thing that could truly decide this game is if someone steps up and claims escort or @Daz confirms they were one of our inactives or dead. But that seems unlikely since night 1 nobody dies which means that both our escort and doctor had to be alive then and at least one has to be alive now. Actually, I feel like the only way to know the answer is to go back to the start and figure out who healed who or who roleblocked the other mafia.

I'm afraid I won't confirm whether the escort is alive or dead.

 

[Vitreus]

Well, I'm going to announce myself as a normal townie. Makes me feel pretty restless, since the most I can do is speculate and vote, but that aside.

Here are the possibilities we may take and subsequent risks.

Tragedy called doctor. So if we were to lynch him and he was telling the truth, we'd be risking big bucks because that leaves our confirmed mayor exposed. Tragedy dies, he's confirmed inno, and then mayor is killed in the night, or one of us townies; regardless, the game CAN extend onto another day where it may be won by determining the mafia from a smaller pool of people. It's a risk, but it's not an end game. It'll extend even longer if mafia continues to abstain from killing people.

If I, Hawk or Starlighter were mislynched, we'd still have mayor left, a probable doctor and one other townie. Meaning the game can extend a few extra days, even with a mislynch. Someone dies at night... if it's our doc, then mayor and townie are left. Game ends the day after if townie is lynched or mayor dies the following night. Mayor is untouchable as long as doc is alive.

So basically I'm saying that if we choose to lynch today...

If it's mafia, we win.

If they're innocent, a townie, then we're left with mayor, potential doctor, a townie and mafia. Mayor is untouchable the following night, if Tragedy continues to devote his heal to Dipper. If mayor dies, two townies are left and Tragedy can be identified as mafia since all heals should be given to the mayor at this point of the game. This means only the townie or doc can die during the night. If the townie dies, doc and mayor still have the opportunity to make a proper vote. If doc dies, the same in terms of votes happens, but mayor is no longer safe; the game cannot extend another day. Mafia may not choose to kill at all, to keep things ambiguous.


I know I'm innocent, I have ample belief that Tragedy is innocent, so for me, the only ones it can be are Star or Hawk. That's why I'm not opposed to lynching Star today, as there is room for that kind of risk. However, if you @LuckycoolHawk9 or @Dipper would collectively prefer to abstain from lynching anyone today, that's fine, and I will also comply. It DOES mean however that if a death in the night takes place (likely my own, or the other regular townie) then the chances of the game being extended do lower. And eventually we have to lynch /someone/ regardless, so I'm not sure how much help it is to abstain from nominating for a day. Regardless, as it stands, we have two solid days in which to root out our culprit.


Also, some info on Star:

So... as far as who the mafia most likely are, I think the inactivity has the best shot for nominating someone to lynch - we might accidentally lynch someone else with a night action and work against ourselves, but I think it's most likely that at least one of the mafia is in that group. But I don't know, I could be wrong.

They were the very first person to suggest lynching inactives in this game. Before even Kiilgore brought the tactic up. Interesting, because Kiilgore never mentioned this quote to spare himself of that blame (that said, his claim was more centered about Hawk being guilty). Of course he might not have seen it, but... *shrugs*

 

[Daz]

I forgot to tag everyone like I usually do. Everyone but @Starlighter has replied, so I only need to tag them now to ensure everyone knows the night phase has ended.

 

[Starlighter]

While we're all announcing who we claim to be, I suppose I might as well take my turn and try to save my neck, since y'all seem pretty convinced I'm mafia.

Obviously none of us can prove anything, but once y'all started jumping on the bandwagon of suspicion on me, I decided to make my prediction at the end of the last day phase so that you have a bit more to go on. I suspect @Solaresque would have called BS on a role reveal from me in about two seconds otherwise.

You all know I have my suspicions about The Tragedy, but I still can't really 'prove' anything. Tragedy and Kiilgore both calling doc strikes me as really quite fishy, as it forced one of them into being killed and the other surviving - and, incidentally, obtaining the trust of the majority (seeing how Dipper counts as three). But anyway, that's just another reason why I suspect Tragedy that I doubt anyone will find to be valid. So, due to my suspicions, I chose to roleblock Tragedy last night. A few possibilities for you all to consider based on my claim as escort:

1. I am the escort, and my suspicions are correct - my move last night saved Dipper and @The Tragedy is mafia.

2. I'm wrong about Tragedy, and someone else is the mafia, but they chose to abstain from killing in hopes of a mislynch.

3. I'm mafia, and this is all an elaborate scheme to get a mislynch while also convincing you all that I'm innocent.

@Solaresque as far as me being the first person to suggest lynching the inactives, you may recall that you, Joan, and Kiilgore were responsible for coming up with the theory that at least one of the mafia was inactive. So while I was the first to say it directly, that theory was brewing well before I ever posted in the thread.

 

[LuckycoolHawk9]

Okay, @Starlighter.... let's assume that you are indeed telling the truth. That means you had to roleblock someone on n1 who was mafia. Now, @The Tragedy says they healed themselves on n1. So, knowing this information, I am going to assume that you blocked Kiilgore. So, my real question is this- is my theory true or did you roleblock someone else n1?

Also, quick question, @Daz, does the person who is roleblocked know that they are being roleblocked?

 

[Vitreus]

@Solaresque as far as me being the first person to suggest lynching the inactives, you may recall that you, Joan, and Kiilgore were responsible for coming up with the theory that at least one of the mafia was inactive. So while I was the first to say it directly, that theory was brewing well before I ever posted in the thread.

Well, I had been talking about how it was unlikely that inactivity was the reason why mafia hadn't made their kill. Although true, we did consider the possibility of inactivity resulting in no murder. Kiilgore presented online times of inactives. But you were on that bandwagon regardless, is basically what I'm saying, and indeed, the first to directly mention that plan of action, following Kiilgore's post. Simply something to keep in mind.


Well, that aside... an escort claim. Hmmm. I don't want to seem overly suspicious of any one of our players for no particular reason, but...

I suspect @Solaresque would have called BS on a role reveal from me in about two seconds otherwise.

This made me laugh though. XD I just personally don't trust role reveals since they're a desperate way to save your ass when you're on the chopping block. Again, under greater fear of being voted in, only at this point is there a reveal. Maybe you're telling the truth, maybe you're lying, but it's literally the best thing mafia can do in this situation; role call so the townies don't want to lynch them. And it's not as though this is wrong to say; Kiilgore did exactly that and they were mafia, so I know what I'm talking about. There's a risk involved regardless, but honestly? Doesn't make me any less suspicious of you for this reason. Since there's a bit of latitude for a mislynch, even if you are escort, I'm not completely bothered by the prospect of taking this risk.

Anyway, I want to hear the opinions of everyone else before we decide on our plan of action. Making it clear however that I'm still comfortable voting in Starlighter, since this, to me, is an elaborately woven ruse as any other.