Mafia 2.0: Day Thread Game #5

[Starlighter]

ROLE LIST

2 Vampires - A neutral role whose goal it is to kill or convert all town members. Vampires have the ability to convert a town player into a vampire at night. If a conversion is successful then the vampires may not attempt to convert someone the following night; if a conversion fails then the vampires may attempt to convert someone the following night. Only town-aligned players may be converted, neutral players will not be converted. Healing a player targeted to be converted will not stop the conversion. Roleblocking the youngest vampire (the one most recently converted) will cause the the conversion to fail- note that if nobody has been converted yet, all living vampires count as the youngest. There may only be four vampires at a time: vampires may not attempt to convert more players if there are currently four vampires alive. Vampires may speak to each other at night.
1 Angel - A neutral role whose goal it is to protect a randomly assigned town player. The angel will win so long as their assigned player survives: thus the angel can win even if the angel themselves die or if the assigned player is converted into a vampire. The angel may protect their assigned player at night a maximum of two times: if the protected player is attacked, then the angel shall die in their place. The angel may also send their assigned player a message at night one time only: I will be the one to send the message via PM, so the angel may choose whether or not their identity is revealed. The Angel will become a Scarecrow if their target is lynched, or dies on a night that the Angel is not protecting them. The goal as a Scarecrow is to follow their protectee to the grave via lynching.
1 Werewolf - A neutral role whose goal it is to kill everyone but themselves. They may target a player to kill every other night, starting on the second night. If the werewolf is roleblocked, then the player who roleblocks them shall be killed in place of the originally targeted player.
1 Ghost - A town role who likes to haunt people. The ghost may target a player to "haunt" every night, which results in the targeted player being roleblocked if successful. A ghost's roleblock is unsuccessful if they die that night.
1 Lich - A town role who raises the dead. The lich may target a dead player to revive at night, and if their revival is successful then the dead player will be become alive again the following day as their original role. A revival is unsuccessful if the lich is roleblocked or killed. If the lich successfully revives someone then they may not revive anymore players.
1 Fairy - A town role who heals others with their magic. The fairy may target one player to heal every night, which will prevent the player's death if they are attacked. The fairy's heal will not be successful if they are roleblocked or killed. The fairy may heal themselves a maximum of two times.
1 Bat - A town role who is part of a spying duo. The bat can target a player to watch at night, and will be informed of anyone who that player visits when the night ends. The bat's ability fails if they are roleblocked. The bat has a night chat with the cat.
1 Cat - A town role who is part of a spying duo. The cat can target a player to watch at night, and will be informed of anyone who visits that player when the night ends. The cat's ability fails if they are roleblocked. The cat has a night chat with the bat.
1 Reaper - A town role who may capture souls for the night. The reaper chooses someone to "trap" any time during the day phrase. The targeted player will become "trapped" at night, meaning they are unable to use their ability or communicate in any other chats they may typically be able to. Instead the trapped player is only able to talk with the reaper for the duration of the night. The conversation shall be held through me so that the reaper may remain anonymous to the trapped player. The reaper may choose to execute the trapped player if they believe they are a scum role. However, if the reaper traps the werewolf or vampire and fails to execute them before the night is through, then the reaper shall die. The reaper may be healed by the fairy to prevent their death from failing to execute a vampire or the werewolf, but an executed player cannot have their death prevented by the heal. The reaper's abilities are unaffected by roleblocks.
1 Witch - A town role who communicates with the dead. The medium may talk to all dead players during the night phase. The medium's ability is unaffected by roleblocks.

 

[Elle Joyner]

I think Pf.D said earlier they didn't like the rolecall idea? Or at least agreed with Cat's assessment that it wasn't a great plan? And aren't IceQueen and Kim are pretty typically quiet first round? Not saying you're wrong, but it's a bit soon to point to them just for silence sake.

(Personally... I got suspicions elsewhere... But I ain't callin' a duck a duck till I hear a little more quackin')

 

[Canadian Cat]

I am personally weary of those who arn't contributing much to this discussion. However the reason for this could also be that they have an important role and don't want to draw attention to themselves. I still have a bit more thinking to do on that one.

Also Elle, I would like to hear your thoughts on that, even if they are incomplete. Unless you think sharing them might hinder your ability to gather more information on your suspensions.

 

[Elle Joyner]

I'm just always a little suspicious of everyone tbh. XD

 

[Joan]

I would just like to note, for the record, that Matizze allowed about 14 and a half hours for their vote. Take that as you will (or don't).

That being said, I know without checking that Kim and Icey have both been online since then, though Kim was preoccupied with finishing a CS and may not have logged on for anything else, while Icey was plotting for NaNoWriMo.

 

[Lusterine]

I would just like to note, for the record, that Matizze allowed about 14 and a half hours for their vote. Take that as you will (or don't).

I agree. This almost frantic behavior is more suspicious than anything else.

 

[Matizze]

I would just like to note, for the record, that Matizze allowed about 14 and a half hours for their vote. Take that as you will (or don't).

Yeah, I may have jumped the gun on this one (I have way too much stuff going on and I can't keep track on everything), so it may not have turned out quite as well as I would have liked... but the plan was basically to simultaneously smoke out baddies as well as getting everyone's opinion on a role call, though, so I'd like to think that we at least got some good information out of all of this!

Going by the logic of Trip (from 1 and a half game ago), we should take in consideration that baddies that know of each other are likely to want to put as much distance between themselves as possible, making it likely that the vampires wouldn't vote for the same option. So that would basically make either @Luster or @Dipper a vampire.

Also, you jumping to the abstainers defense has been noted, but as you are usually quick to defend Kim, it's nothing unusual.

 

[Joan]

Yeah, I may have jumped the gun on this one (I have way too much stuff going on and I can't keep track on everything), so it may not have turned out quite as well as I would have liked... but the plan was basically to simultaneously smoke out baddies as well as getting everyone's opinion on a role call, though, so I'd like to think that we at least got some good information out of all of this!

Going by the logic of Trip (from 1 and a half game ago), we should take in consideration that baddies that know of each other are likely to want to put as much distance between themselves as possible, making it likely that the vampires wouldn't vote for the same option. So that would basically make either @Luster or @Dipper a vampire.

Also, you jumping to the abstainers defense has been noted, but as you are usually quick to defend Kim, it's nothing unusual.

I was mostly just trying to provide facts, not jump to anybody's defense or anything o_o" though, I should have realized it would be seen that way before I said anything, so meh.

At first, I was raising eyebrows when you mentioned Trip's logic, but I guess you did work with him, so you might have some more insights into that than the rest of us? That being said, the idea of vampires and mafia distancing themselves from each other is fairly solid in and of itself, but I can't help but feel like vampires would have to show a bit more unity in voting because it's a large part of how they win, if that makes any sense whatsoever.

 

[Canadian Cat]

This is day one so the information we have is pretty limited. But even so my gut wants to trust Mat, he really started us on serious conversation and information gathering. The town doing those two things is very bad for the baddies. And two bads make a good.

 

[Pf.D]

I am personally weary of those who arn't contributing much to this discussion.

Well pardon me for having things to do away from my computer screen.

Cat's baseless eagerness aside, I think that since we have absolutely nothing to go on, we either randolynch or do nothing. Best case we rando and get vamp/ww/slightly less necessary neutral hat can be revived by the Lich. Worst case, we hit someone like the Fairy or w/e and essentially screw ourselves.

So I elect to do nothing. Everyone town-side should use your roles responsibly and hope it turns out okay and hope that we'll have more to go on in the next DP.

 

[Canadian Cat]

Im sorry but im having trouble seeing the logic in that. If we choose not to lynch, wouldn't we be giving the baddies a head start?

 

[Kiilgore]

Im sorry but im having trouble seeing the logic in that. If we choose not to lynch, wouldn't we be giving the baddies a head start?

We'd be more likely to Lynch someone good than evil. That's the problem with random lynching

 

[Matizze]

At first, I was raising eyebrows when you mentioned Trip's logic, but I guess you did work with him, so you might have some more insights into that than the rest of us? That being said, the idea of vampires and mafia distancing themselves from each other is fairly solid in and of itself, but I can't help but feel like vampires would have to show a bit more unity in voting because it's a large part of how they win, if that makes any sense whatsoever.

I mean, I didn't work with him for that long, but he was spot on with his accusation as Kim was mafia and Otaku was town, hence why I'm re-using it.
Also, it isn't necessarily a bad idea for vamps to distance themselves from one another. Especially as every scenario where the town never lynches automatically leads to a vamp win. (I have made a chart of it, it's extensive)

Cat's baseless eagerness aside, I think that since we have absolutely nothing to go on, we either randolynch or do nothing. Best case we rando and get vamp/ww/slightly less necessary neutral hat can be revived by the Lich. Worst case, we hit someone like the Fairy or w/e and essentially screw ourselves.

So I elect to do nothing. Everyone town-side should use your roles responsibly and hope it turns out okay and hope that we'll have more to go on in the next DP.

I wouldn't say that Cat is baseless, actually them integrating statistics into the discussion has really helped us get a better understanding of our situation so I'm inclined to trust them.

We'd be more likely to Lynch someone good than evil. That's the problem with random lynching

Mm, I'm not really sure I agree... It doesn't necessarily have to be a problem as we have a lich.
Right now, it's more like a ruthless gamble than anything, but how about we make use of the lich? Every other night, the risk of having the lich converted increases, so why not use the ability as quick as possible? That way, we could afford to random lynch until we hit a townie, and with the lynched townie revived, they would basically be confirmed and could be protected by the fairy/ the cat/ the bat...

 

[Elle Joyner]

Only way I'm random lynching anyone is if it's unanimous. Or if someone makes a darn good point about lynching someone, that goes beyond number games.

Mat has a close-to-decent point about the Lich. My issue is A.) Roleblocking or B.) We hit the Lich at random and then ...they straight up dead.

And I would note C.) Cat and Mat seem awfully convergent upon this idea, which could indicate nothing... Except that as Kiilgore pointed out... Random lynching has more chance of serving the bad guys than not... Because we might take out a townie, and the vamp's will convert... But let's not forget the werewolf is still a factor and this post-vote night is a kill night. That's three dead/turned, which makes us the minority immediately instead of giving us one more round for our role-folk to do role-folk things and get us more info. If Cat was so keen on numbers before, where are the statistics now. Just seems odd neither one of y'all seemed to do the math there? Also D.) their names rhyme.... which has nothing to do with anything, but it's funny.

 

[Canadian Cat]

Elle, I would like to point out that I made my most recent post at 11:53 pm, my time. I do like to math but I can't math while I am half asleep. Also I wasn't trying to say that I like the idea of random lynch, just that I don't understand the point of no lynch.

Also I find it suspect that PF. D seemed to imply that those were our only two options.

Going back to the chart I made, we currently have a 36.4% chance of taking down a baddie (once again, assuming that there are 4 baddies right now, it could be worse). That translates to a 63.6% chance of killing a non-baddie. Actually let me break this down further. How about another chart? (I know, I know, I'm sorry)

(Also at this point I would like to note that I accidentally closed the tab I was writing this in, panicked a little, then found out that Iwaku saved it. It's not relevant to anything I just find it funny.)

As you can see we have a 54.5% chance of killing a town and a 36.4% chance of killing a baddie. Do I like these odds? Of course not, but they are better then most casinos. Also keep in mind that the number used for the werewolf and angel can be applied to any one particular role, if that is of any relevance to anyone.

(At this point I would like to point out I accidentally pushed a wrong button and did it again.)

So I don't like the odds of random lynching however if we use some gold old fashioned thinking I think we have a pretty good shot of taking down a baddie.

 

[Elle Joyner]

Well heck! I can't do math any time of day lol I dunno how you math brain people work!

I guess my question is... as of right now do you have any evidentiary support to lynch someone justifiably? Cause that's the issue I'm having. I have people I suspect... But none enough to go and vote for them and either lynch someone we need or end up making a huge target of myself. Which, by the by, is why most people stay fairly silent first round... Cause the first to go are the first to speak up.

Only way I could see justifying any sort of lynch this first round is if someone did something straight up shady or overthetop. Like math charts... (Jk!)

 

[Canadian Cat]

No I don't have a perfect plan to lynch someone. Honestly I don't think I will ever have a perfect plan to lynch someone. I think that our best option is to pool our information together and see if we can't come to an agreement. If we can't do that then I would say no-lynch is our second best option. Although its getting closer and closer to the voting stage so I admit this option is slowly looking better and better. I just think we can still do more.

So this is my suggestion. There are 3 original bad guys. Lets come up with two lists each. The three people you trust the most thus far, and the three people you don't. Hopefully then we could come to some sort of agreement. If you guys don't want to do this, then I will concede and go with the no-lynch, as that is still better then a random lynch in my opinion.

 

[Elle Joyner]

Or, to save time, how about we start with lynch/no lynch votes?

 

[LuckycoolHawk9]

So this is my suggestion. There are 3 original bad guys. Lets come up with two lists each. The three people you trust the most thus far, and the three people you don't. Hopefully then we could come to some sort of agreement. If you guys don't want to do this, then I will concede and go with the no-lynch, as that is still better then a random lynch in my opinion.

This is true. However, this is very important. There may be four bad guys. At this point, we may have three vampires and one werewolf. And amongst those vampires, we may have one vampire who can hide behind their original town identity despite being a vampire.

 

[Canadian Cat]

Well guys I have to head off to work today so this will likely be the last post I make during the discussion phase. It looks like we weren't able to pool together more information before hand so it would appear that our only two options is random lynch and no lynch. So I owe an apology to PF. D. You were right, you obviously know how this people work better then I do. Or maybe I was a fool to think we could actually lynch a baddie today. Either way, I was wrong and you were right.

So between no-lynch and random lynch my vote goes towards no lynch. If we random lynch we only have a 36.4% of hitting a baddie. And if we hit the town we would be giving the baddies a huge advantage.

Also Starlighter, I have a couple of questions about the voting stage. Does the lynch go through as soon as someone gets the required amount of votes? Can you change your vote once you already cast it?

 

[Elle Joyner]

I know from reading back, votes can be changed up until the final voting day.

I also vote no lynch.