Plausible Scenario?

[Illin]

So there's one RP I've been entertaining to revive, but I want to go through some details if I decide to go through with that idea.

Part of the RP's setting has two countries (let's say gamma and beta) in a war and some people gambling on which country will win. The number of speculants is so large that they bring the economy down and governments can't stop them because it's technically not a crime.

Does that even work? Can gamblers really bring down an economy just by gambling? And can't governments just pass laws to forbid such practices? Would such a gambling set up be profitable to either Gamma or Beta? I guess if they get the money up front or something and promise gamblers for a stake in the country's future...?

I don't know. What do you guys think?

 

[Kagayours]

Well... first of all... I'm not exactly an economist, but, how exactly is gambling supposed to bring down the economy at all? What logic are you following to arrive at that point? How exactly is their gambling detrimental to the economy? Even if you have an explanation that represents an extremely simplified and/or flawed understanding of economics, it would still be something, and would therefore be at least somewhat plausible in a fictional setting (and I for one am of the belief that plotholes in an RP's setup don't really matter if they're easy to overlook and don't screw up anything else). But, without any sort of explanation... yeah, I have no idea why gambling would bring down an economy.

Once you have that, you can get into the nitty-gritty of whether or not your explanation would make any sense. And for that, I'm summoning @Brovo because I feel like he would be knowledgeable on this.

 

[Brovo]

You would have to have an awful lot of gambling. Like, at the level that the governments involved would no longer possess any sort of power, and if they weren't dismantled, they would essentially be gambling puppets. The cultures themselves would have to have some sort of obsession with it, so children are indoctrinated into doing it at a young age instead of questioning it. It would likely influence the wars in such a way that battles are made for spectacle by the puppet governments and neither side ever makes a truly decisive, winning strike, to prolong the gambling as much as possible. It would never be stable though, and it would eventually collapse once it hit its maximum possible payout potential.

Normally gambling is destructive to the individual, so, to make it hit a society-wide level, the entire society (or at least a vast, vast majority of it) would need to be suffering gambling addictions and debts. You would need to take the 1920's prohibition era gangs and put them on massive steroids, and give them top tier military hardware, and make their leaders all Al Capone level geniuses (that don't get busted for tax fraud) to create a dystopian society like this, but, it is possible. At least, conceptually. If people were suckered into believing that gambling is their "get rich quick" scheme, and anyone can win, and get them obsessing over it. Make it as addictive a concept as paradise after death, or even have it influence religion to make wealth some sort of prerequisite to heaven and gambling a noble act to "fight in the game of wits" with others.

Give it some thought. It might work.

 

[Illin]

Well... first of all... I'm not exactly an economist, but, how exactly is gambling supposed to bring down the economy at all? What logic are you following to arrive at that point? How exactly is their gambling detrimental to the economy? Even if you have an explanation that represents an extremely simplified and/or flawed understanding of economics, it would still be something, and would therefore be at least somewhat plausible in a fictional setting (and I for one am of the belief that plotholes in an RP's setup don't really matter if they're easy to overlook and don't screw up anything else). But, without any sort of explanation... yeah, I have no idea why gambling would bring down an economy.

Once you have that, you can get into the nitty-gritty of whether or not your explanation would make any sense. And for that, I'm summoning @Brovo because I feel like he would be knowledgeable on this.

I'm not sure myself. It's not my idea and it never even got started since the GM disappeared (and has been gone for about a year now) before I could ask him to explain more about the details. I might just take out the gambling part since I'd probably have to force it (and I don't have any good ideas right now), but I was looking to see if other people might have some idea about it. @Brovo gave me some good ideas, but I'm still not sure if I want to go that far for the concept. Thanks to both of you though.