Mafia 4.0: Day Thread #8

I don't quite understand how I'm deflecting. I've explained why I did what I did. Lusterine was the one who was deflecting - rather than try to explain their actions they tried to bounce that accusation straight onto somebody else. But apparently you weren't too concerned about deflection when he did it, since you decided to spare him from the lynch.

I'll more than explain anything that could be construed as suspicious. But no one has given any examples other than a general handwavy reason.

Also I don't understand why we are immediately trust @LuckycoolHawk9 as town aligned. I doubt they've managed to hit vanilla townie this many games in a row. Also, no one (unless Dipper says otherwise?) has investingated Lucky. Notice how no one brought the Godfather thing? Easy way to close out the game by pinning it on someone else.
 
Also I don't understand why we are immediately trust @LuckycoolHawk9 as town aligned. I doubt they've managed to hit vanilla townie this many games in a row. Also, no one (unless Dipper says otherwise?) has investingated Lucky. Notice how no one brought the Godfather thing? Easy way to close out the game by pinning it on someone else.

Outside of two/threes games, I have had that bad of a track record ( And one of them is non-canon) of not getting any power roles. Also, it's under the godfather's ingame description. I'm surprised nobody else noticed it. ( Seriously, just read the second post on the first page).
 
I actually didn't realise the God Father worked that way... I am a mafia pro...

Still my read on RJS has been town alined since yesterday morning. I could have making a mistake, but I am still thinking our best bet is Joan or Luster.
 
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( Reminder, even if it was jokingly, @The_J claimed mafia)
Ah, but if I was mafia, then I'd have known you'd think that, so I'd have not said it, but then I'd know you'd think of that, so I'd have said it, but then I'd know you'd think of that, so I would have said it, but then...

Lusterine: Mentioned mafia chat reading in a context that could be taken as part of them.
Mate, come on. This is metagaming. Really goes against the spirit of the game.
I doubt they've managed to hit vanilla townie this many games in a row
This is known as the gambler's fallacy, and is completely unfounded in actual probability. You have the same chance to draw a given role no matter how many times you have drawn it before.
Outside of two/threes games, I have had that bad of a track record ( And one of them is non-canon) of not getting any power roles
Aight now you're doing it. Guys, stop it with the gambler's fallacy.

I'm afraid I'm going to play this smart and not try to help any particular person. I just need to live to the end of this, I don't really need to stay engaged with whos' guilty or innocent. I'm just doing these replies because I believe that the attitudes that I'm arguing against are best gotten rid of for the good of the game.
 
Mate, come on. This is metagaming. Really goes against the spirit of the game.

I did say could. I am uncertain and may be reading too much into it. I honestly am not sure how to read Luster early post about reading vanilla townie in something mafia related. I could be dead wrong. Not trying to meta- game.
 
I did say could. I am uncertain and may be reading too much into it. I honestly am not sure how to read Luster early post about reading vanilla townie in something mafia related. I could be dead wrong. Not trying to meta- game.
It's still using it, no matter how you use it, which is metagaming. Just stop, please.
 
Is it really metagaming? I mean its using information that was shared on this thread.

I guess this goes back to the discussion on day 1 as to how much information we should use.
 
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I thought Kim already said no to that. I could be mistaken. I'm am a being of very little sleep but I think I remember something like that.
 
Is it really metagaming? I mean its using information that was shared on this thread.

I guess this goes back to the discussion on day 1 as to how much information we should use.
It's certainly going against the spirit of the game. I would argue that it's still metagaming because you're using info that isn't meant to be used. Whether it is or not, it should be common sense that it isn't ok.
 
Okay, then I'm going to say it. Outside of that one thing that even considering it makes it meta-gaming, I haven't seen any mafia-esque actions or behaviors taken by Luster which is why my bet is they are an executioner with CrystalTears as their target.
 
I'll second the vote for Joan.
 
Three votes for Joan

Reminder: 5 votes are required to lynch!
 
I'll vote for Joan! :D
 
Ooooooooooh it's close!
 
Its the final countdown!

Also when does this phase end again?
 
The day phase will end on Tuesday, July 24.

4 votes for Joan
 
Oh, so this is why somebody told me I needed to check here. Thanks for the heads-up, dude.

Sorry for my silence up till now, I've been really wiped out for several days and I've been prioritizing spending quality time with my boyfriend and close friends, including RP posts for them, rather than checking here. I only just got home from a trip as well, so that's part of it, too. I missed a lot, evidently, so I'll only be able to address the main points.

Also, important information to remember, Dipper's detective read CANNOT detect godfather as they are read as innocent so it is entirely possible that @RJS is godfather and killed Dipper to look less suspicious. But otherwise, I got nothing.
Fair point, but like Cat, I think RJ is likely town. Sure, he revealed the mayor, but he had good reasons for it, and he's been focused on generating discussion. Seems town-like to me.

I mean, it's all well and good saying that, but we had a slightly stronger hand yesterday where we didn't necessarily have to rely on the neutrals - and then you and J pulled out of that vote. We had six votes on Lusterine and then two people backed off. I accept the caution over someone maybe being a jester, but let's consider the mathematics of that situation.

If Lusterine is genuinely the jester and neither you or J are mafia, then there was a chance that lynching the jester would kill a mafia as well as a town. We would have been gambling on the neutral helping the town. Which is exactly the situation we find ourselves in today. What's changed?

Lusterine is still alive. I'm not gonna lie, I find it highly suspicious that in the middle of an important vote two people withdraw their votes in order to save a third person. We know that there are two people claiming vanilla town who are not actually town. Lusterine and Lucky both claimed Vanilla Town.

J has an uncontested survivor claim right? Is it that unlikely that he false claimed and that the real survivor has no motive to publically announce themselves because to do so could get them killed - especially if they already used up their vests?

It's annoying me because it fits and yet it doesn't. Lusterine being mafia is something I am very comfortable with, but for both Lucky and J I'm having to overturn the reads I had on them. But it all just seems too convenient.

I dunno if this is sudden paranoid craziness kicking in - maybe I've missed something - or if the mafia just slipped up and overplayed their hand. I really need to hear other people's input on this.
Do you remember how quickly Joan and Luster both jumped on voting Crystal immediately after I posted my mafia theory? I have been considering, and this is not based on any hard evidence just my brain again, that I made a miss-step in that theory and that Crystal was in fact not the third mafia. If this is true the most logical person, to me anyway, to be the third mafia would be Star. Meaning the role of the Executioner/Jester would be up in the air.

Lucky, are you the executioner and is your target RJS?
I would like to note, the only reason I didn't initially vote for Luster was that I thought they may be jester, and Crystal was my second guess for mafia. Later, I would have switched my vote to Luster, but yall already had enough votes, so I didn't switch my vote--I said this, and I can quote that post. Due to stuff going on at the time, I didn't check the thread again until the night phase--and by then, it was too late. I do find it odd that people commented on the failure to lynch before the night phase started, and yet they didn't do anything about it. That's suspicious to me.

Though, I'm not sure about RJ's theory. Lucky is very, very likely town, in my opinion, just because he's doing his best to play smart townie, like he always does.

As a general reminder, I'm a normal townie who is going to break down the roles claims again.

Survivor: @The_J
Medium: @Canadian Cat
Doctor: @Cabob7
Mafia: ????,?????, ?????? ( Reminder, even if it was jokingly, @The_J claimed mafia)
Executioner/ Jester: ( Unclaimed, can be Luster or the J or anyone who has claimed normal townie)
Townie claims/ otherwise unclaimed: Luckycoolhawk9 ( Me), @Joan @Starlighter, @RJS, @Lusterine, @CrystalTears

Now let's break down those remaining in terms of suspicions in game actions.

Joan: Can't remember much honestly, but I know a lot of people are suspicious of her. Detective may have found them as guilty
RJS: Had the mayor fully out themselves, has argued against roleclaim numerous times, detective died the night after they claimed they were innocent.
Starlighter: Little to no contribution, suspicious, but could just be very quiet townie/ jester.
Lusterine: Mentioned mafia chat reading in a context that could be taken as part of them.

Now as a reminder, we only have two townies role left, so of these five, two are telling the truth and four are lying. I do agree with Cat that CrystalTears may not be last mafia, but I like to raise a second theory.

Either Joan/ Lusterine is the executioner and CrystalTears is their target. That would leave myself, RJS, Joan, Starlighter and Lusterine as possible mafia. Now, J made a great point yesterday. If Lusterine was mafia, why wouldn't they have defended themselves? It doesn't make sense, so I am going with them as the executioner (possible jester) and if CrystalTears is not Mafia, I personally think our mafia might be Joan, RJS and Starlighter.

Each and every time someone accuses him, he deflects the accusation.
I can't recall RJ arguing against roleclaim--if anything, I think he's argued for it, and against people saying simply "I have a power role". Though, to be fair, it's been a long several days, and I'd have to go back and read it again to make sure.

Star is hella busy, and has been prioritizing RP posts over Mafia.

I don't know what I can say, other than I've been busy and had other priorities. I still find it suspicious that Crystal is basically lurking in the background and not really contributing when he says stuff, but he is new to this. I'd find the smiley faces suspicious if I didn't know him out of the game, as well. I find it suspicious that people commented after votes were pulled from Luster but didn't do anything. I'd still like to get a clear idea of why I'm being accused, though maybe I'd get that if I went back and read the backlog, which I don't have time to do.

I will continue to have other priorities, since I am only barely back from my trip and I have some stuff going on, so I won't really have time to say much in my defense besides this. I'll try to check back later today, at least.
 
Yeah my theory about lucky being the executioner was based on something that worked differently then how I thought it did, so you are right to see it as unlikely. Also J was the other person who opted out of the vote. If he is the survivor this makes total sense as he does not want to risk being killed by the jester.