Game 2 Mafia Day Thread

My gut tells me @Dipper is mafia... but I still don't know if I'm confident enough in my instincts to actually lynch him. @LuckycoolHawk9 you and @Kiilgore have both read as town to me. Lost hasn't done anything that makes me think Jester though.... so I feel like we would be reasonably safe in a Lynch there while we're still unsure about Dipper?

@Starlighter

The main thing about that is that unless mafia attacks the jester/mayor isn't dead, if we mislynch, the only hope for us winning is the jester townsiding...
(because:
right now, 3 town, 1maf, 1 jest
mislynch: 2 town, 1 maf, 1 jest
successful NK: 1t 1m 1j)

Also to add on to what @Kiilgore says, if we mislynch the jester, we are fucked unless the mafia voted guilty on them and is jester killed. Right now, assuming we do kill the jester and the mafia doesn't vote guilty, the town is screwed... unless the mafia and jester kill the same person. That would put us at 2 V 1... but even then, if we don't get a perfect lynch here, we are screwed. I am not saying we don't lynch, it's just we need to be positive on our vote now more than ever.

As a heads up, 3 votes will be needed to lynch someone in the next voting phase.

@Dipper
@Lost-and-Bewildered
Do either of you have anything to add/ any thoughts on the current situation?

No. My gut isn't feeling particularly reliable today.

If I'm going to be perfectly honest, I'm at a loss. I want to say lynch Dipper because he's the only one who gives any strong indication of being a potential mafia. But we still don't know that for sure, and we're screwed if he's the jester.

Hmm this is somehow getting more difficult rather than less... Let me get this straight.

Lynch Dipper -> He's innocent and we've lost a town member.
-> He's jester and we have a 50/50 chance of being screwed depending on whether or not the one remaining mafia votes guilty or innocent.
-> He's mafia and everything's peachy.

Or don't lynch Dipper -> Someone is going to die anyway tonight.

Lynch someone else -> ??

Nobody seems particularly suspicious to me other than Dipper... So I would lean towards abstaining and hoping that mafia targets jester during the next night phase, because either way someone's going to die, but this way there's a lower chance of that death making it impossible for town to win, if that makes sense? Hahaha me as jester...I wish I had such an influential/interesting role. Just a plain townie, I don't really have any proof though so I don't blame any of you for having suspicions.

The discussion phase has ended and it is now the voting phase. This time 3 votes are needed to vote someone up. The voting phase is currently planned to end on Friday, 7:30pm (bst).

@Lost-and-Bewildered @Starlighter @Dipper @Kiilgore

So, is there anyone who wants to do a lynch or do we want to take the risk and see what happens tonight? Either way, it looks like tomorrow is going to be our last chance to catch the mafia if we do or don't make a move ( and if we do, we have to be certain about it)

@Daz would it be possible to extend the discussion? I've realized something that I really want to talk over.

So essentially, I was thinking about why it is that @Dipper claimed to be the Doctor. There was a substantial evidence and strong support behind the theory that he was the Detective.... so, if he was Mafia, isn't it reasonable to say that he would have been safe to let us keep thinking that? Why risk the attention of going against a theory that was working to his (hypothetical) benefit?

Alternatively, it's worth pointing out that doing so was clearly a strong indication of Jester. So it could be argued that he was heavily playing Jester-y as an added layer of protection. However, due to how I saw him play last game and what I know of him, I highly doubt that he would use such a devious, intricate, and roundabout method.

I personally, after considering all this, have changed my opinion. I believe that @Dipper is the Jester as of this point in time. However, this raises the question of who in the heck our last mafia is. My best guess is still @Lost-and-Bewildered, due to how they have been too absent for a strong read in any direction to be made, and the fact that I believe with a fair degree of innocence in both @Kiilgore and @LuckycoolHawk9

Now, more than ever, I really need you guys to think hard about this. What do you think? If not Dipper, who do you suspect most strongly, and why? Are there any flaws in my reasoning, or relevant points that I've missed that could change this spin on things? Or do any of you have another interpretation of my arguments?

If it keeps me alive ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ If I claimed to be detective, I'd be at the center of attention. Detective can't heal himself.

Also that's a heavy burden I'd rather not suffer.

Starlighter said:

@Daz would it be possible to extend the discussion? I've realized something that I really want to talk over.

So essentially, I was thinking about why it is that @Dipper claimed to be the Doctor. There was a substantial evidence and strong support behind the theory that he was the Detective.... so, if he was Mafia, isn't it reasonable to say that he would have been safe to let us keep thinking that? Why risk the attention of going against a theory that was working to his (hypothetical) benefit?

Alternatively, it's worth pointing out that doing so was clearly a strong indication of Jester. So it could be argued that he was heavily playing Jester-y as an added layer of protection. However, due to how I saw him play last game and what I know of him, I highly doubt that he would use such a devious, intricate, and roundabout method.

I personally, after considering all this, have changed my opinion. I believe that @Dipper is the Jester as of this point in time. However, this raises the question of who in the heck our last mafia is. My best guess is still @Lost-and-Bewildered, due to how they have been too absent for a strong read in any direction to be made, and the fact that I believe with a fair degree of innocence in both @Kiilgore and @LuckycoolHawk9

Now, more than ever, I really need you guys to think hard about this. What do you think? If not Dipper, who do you suspect most strongly, and why? Are there any flaws in my reasoning, or relevant points that I've missed that could change this spin on things? Or do any of you have another interpretation of my arguments?

Click to expand...

I can see where you come from with that.... But the problem is, what if he wants us to think that...
After all.... To avoid being lynched, a good way is to seem like a jester.... In addition, if he's scum this game, last game wouldn't be a good indicator... Since he was town last time.

A(n attempted) breakdown on most of dipper's actions, from both perspectives of him being mafia and jester.

-Outing of luster.
Mafia: outing partner to seem town-aligned. Get the trust of others.
Jester: Point suspicion towards a random person, possibly hoping it to be a townie to seem like a mafia hoping for a quick Lynch.

-Uncommital responses (including the not breaking down of views)
Mafia: seem like a PR townie that doesn't want to out too much. OR seem like a jester to avoid being lynched
Jester: to seem like a hiding mafia to gain suspicion.

-Doc claim
Mafia: a win-win plan.
If doc is dead: seem as doc. (Due to Uncounterclaimed)
If doc is alive: out the doc to readily get rid of them.
Possibly also seem jesterish due to earlier assumptions and heal claims.
Jester: gain suspicions due to claiming a role with poor heal claims.

I think those are the main things......
If I missed anything, do tell me.

Also @Starlighter

You said that you doubt dipper would come up with that.
But what about Luster?
I say this because it's possible, but I understand that it's a huuuuuuge stretch. Like... Larger than the stretch needed to get from the bottom of the ocean to the top of Everest in one step.
(Probably not that large, but you get what I mean, right?)

Luster and dipper could have planned out a general plan of action when luster was still alive.



As for who my secondary read is...?
I don't know

I mean... @Starlighter
With what you said about lost.... I can see it as both as a red flag and a I get your point.

Red flag: for most of the previous game, star and I were ruling with an iron fist (so to say) leading the town on mislynches through arguments of inactivity. This is e second time you suggest this method this game too. (First was djinn, which admittedly I fell in the same trap for...)
The only reason why we lost was because of the grand mayor reveal, and then it all came tumbling down from there on out, so with the evidence there, it (mostly) worked.
How do we know that suggestion isn't a desperate push, using what, for the most part, worked last time. Mayor is supposedly gone after all. (Not revealing when joan (supposed doc with lots of supporting evidence of being doc) was still around.)

'I get your point': compared to our previous game inactives, lost has been way more active. Active enough to send in night actions if his role has any, iirc.

So, the inactivity could be argued as trying to avoid the thread so he doesn't scumslip, yet still visiting enough to get the required stuff for his role done.

Starlighter said:

@Daz would it be possible to extend the discussion? I've realized something that I really want to talk over.

So essentially, I was thinking about why it is that @Dipper claimed to be the Doctor. There was a substantial evidence and strong support behind the theory that he was the Detective.... so, if he was Mafia, isn't it reasonable to say that he would have been safe to let us keep thinking that? Why risk the attention of going against a theory that was working to his (hypothetical) benefit?

Alternatively, it's worth pointing out that doing so was clearly a strong indication of Jester. So it could be argued that he was heavily playing Jester-y as an added layer of protection. However, due to how I saw him play last game and what I know of him, I highly doubt that he would use such a devious, intricate, and roundabout method.

I personally, after considering all this, have changed my opinion. I believe that @Dipper is the Jester as of this point in time. However, this raises the question of who in the heck our last mafia is. My best guess is still @Lost-and-Bewildered, due to how they have been too absent for a strong read in any direction to be made, and the fact that I believe with a fair degree of innocence in both @Kiilgore and @LuckycoolHawk9

Now, more than ever, I really need you guys to think hard about this. What do you think? If not Dipper, who do you suspect most strongly, and why? Are there any flaws in my reasoning, or relevant points that I've missed that could change this spin on things? Or do any of you have another interpretation of my arguments?

Click to expand...

Sure, I'll extend it. I'll revert us back to the discussion phase- so it's the discussion, not voting phase now- and end it Sunday at 7:30 (BST).

After some thinking, I'd say that my secondary mafread (after dipper) is @Starlighter

Primarily, it boils down to this:

Kiilgore said:

Red flag: for most of the previous game, star and I were ruling with an iron fist (so to say) leading the town on mislynches through arguments of inactivity. This is e second time you suggest this method this game too. (First was djinn, which admittedly I fell in the same trap for...)
The only reason why we lost was because of the grand mayor reveal, and then it all came tumbling down from there on out, so with the evidence there, it (mostly) worked.
How do we know that suggestion isn't a desperate push, using what, for the most part, worked last time. Mayor is supposedly gone after all. (Not revealing when joan (supposed doc with lots of supporting evidence of being doc) was still around.)

Click to expand...

While the argument against Lost does have some substance to it, it makes the assumption that he's intentionally avoiding the thread, and not just busy. Furthermore, where there was that one thing that made me raise my eyebrow in suspicion at him, it was mainly because of a misread. (the jumping on the bandwagon that I interpreted to be that he was jumping on just because it was a bandwagon, when he said that it was to see the alignment of dipper/Luster.)



TL;DR
Starlighter is my secondary scumread as other than dipper, she's the only one that had any red flags.


@LuckycoolHawk9
@Lost-and-Bewildered
@Dipper
Thoughts in general?

I'm just going to defend myself here and say that I'm sporadically active because I do want to be involved in this game so I pop by when I can, but my exams are fast approaching so I'll often have very busy periods when I've got too many irl responsibilities to fulfill and run out of time at the end of the day to come here. No strategy, no night role to uphold, just a hectic schedule. Although I can appreciate your point of view because you have no proof that what I'm saying is correct. But looking back, surely you can see some truth in what I've just said? When I showed up earlier in the game I was...well...lost (badum tsss), because I've never played mafia in a forum before and due to the fact that I had no role and therefore no leads other than what I could infer from your comments. Then later on I'd show up, read over what everyone else said, and sum up my thoughts as clearly and impartially as I could. If anything, I've been more open than most other players (@Dipper made a comment a few pages back about me revealing too much which I can dig up if you like) because I have nothing to hide.

To me, I think Dipper is definitely still the most suspicious, he's held his cards close to his chest the entire game, even after revealing his supposed role as doctor (Which @Joan countered, with a much more persuasive claim). If he IS part of the town why is he still hiding things from the rest of us? If he's already done so and I've missed it among the other 435 posts on this thread I apologise, but I would still like to see a list of his nightly heals, assuming he's still claiming the role of doctor. If not he could also provide evidence of his findings within his role as detective- at this point it would be a worthwhile risk to share that information in my opinion because if we can ascertain @Dipper 's role then we can narrow down the list of suspects and will be more likely to lynch mafia. If he is town, he'll already be a target for the mafia because of his role claims.

@Kiilgore your theory on @Starlighter is an interesting one, but I wish I could've witnessed their previous gameplay myself. I don't think their actions are decisively suspicious, so unless further evidence presents itself I wouldn't even think about lynching them.

Lost-and-Bewildered said:

To me, I think Dipper is definitely still the most suspicious, he's held his cards close to his chest the entire game, even after revealing his supposed role as doctor (Which @Joan countered, with a much more persuasive claim). If he IS part of the town why is he still hiding things from the rest of us? If he's already done so and I've missed it among the other 435 posts on this thread I apologise, but I would still like to see a list of his nightly heals, assuming he's still claiming the role of doctor. If not he could also provide evidence of his findings within his role as detective- at this point it would be a worthwhile risk to share that information in my opinion because if we can ascertain @Dipper 's role then we can narrow down the list of suspects and will be more likely to lynch mafia. If he is town, he'll already be a target for the mafia because of his role claims.

@Kiilgore your theory on @Starlighter is an interesting one, but I wish I could've witnessed their previous gameplay myself. I don't think their actions are decisively suspicious, so unless further evidence presents itself I wouldn't even think about lynching them.

Click to expand...

Dipper said:

For now, all I can say is, with 100% certainty, that I am not detective. I'm doctor. I've been trying to lay low for some time via acting somewhat normal, but if this is what I need to do, so be it. Leave me be and I'll keep us going for as long as I can.

Click to expand...

As seen in this post, Dipper claims that he's not the detective.

Dipper said:

What's the point of healing outside of yourself if you're not sure who anyone is?

Click to expand...

Dipper said:

Second/last night.

Click to expand...

Dipper was also claiming that he only healed himself. Joan counterclaimed with better evidence, and more believable, since she was actually doing the job that she's supposed to be doing as doc. Joan was already revealed to be town. This means that Joan's claim as doctor is way more trusted, IMHO, as why would town have a reason to lie about being a power role? (in the way she did anyways.)

and fair enough on the Starlighter thing. It's just that to me, she has the most red flags (after Dipper, who has so much it's basically 'are you jester trying to seem like mafia? or are you mafia trying to seem like a jester?')

I just think that those who are inactive are generally easier to push for being lynched. When we are essentially in MYLO, going for such a lynch, with inactivity being the primary evidence, (especially considering how WELL it worked last game, as @LuckycoolHawk9 , @Dipper , and @Starlighter can attest to.) would be concerning.

It seems my mafia alarm didn't go off, and I'm too tired to change the phase right now, so discussion is extended another day.

Thank you both for the comments, it's been rather... illuminating, if I must say. I think I'll start by saying that all the arguments you've made for yourself @Lost-and-Bewildered and those of @Kiilgore have, for the most part, allayed my suspicions of you.

Second, @Kiilgore, I'd like to address your 'accusation' if you will, of me being mafia. First, this:

Starlighter said:

Now, more than ever, I really need you guys to think hard about this. What do you think? If not Dipper, who do you suspect most strongly, and why? Are there any flaws in my reasoning, or relevant points that I've missed that could change this spin on things? Or do any of you have another interpretation of my arguments?

Click to expand...

I think it's fair to say that I rather specifically stated that I wanted you guys to counter me if my reasoning was flawed, and in regards to what I said about Lost, you did exactly that.

Kiilgore said:

Red flag: for most of the previous game, star and I were ruling with an iron fist (so to say) leading the town on mislynches through arguments of inactivity. This is e second time you suggest this method this game too. (First was djinn, which admittedly I fell in the same trap for...)

Click to expand...

Lynching djinn was a little different, though. I didn't (and I believe I said this or something to similar effect) want to Lynch them because of inactivity as we did last game. I wanted to Lynch them so that we didn't have to worry about factoring in the possibilities of their faction when they were only contributing another angle that was distracting us from pursuing more useful leads.

Kiilgore said:

How do we know that suggestion isn't a desperate push, using what, for the most part, worked last time. Mayor is supposedly gone after all. (Not revealing when joan (supposed doc with lots of supporting evidence of being doc) was still around.)

Click to expand...

Again, if this was the case, why would I want to encourage counterarguments and allow for the potential of suspicion falling on me? We were pretty much all set to abstain before I sparked the discussion again, so tbh pushing it back into activity at the last second wouldn't be the brightest move. Also considering how bleak things are looking for the town right now, I don't expect our mafia would need to be making 'desperate' moves. Also this is the second time this game I've asked for an extension, and I think we can all agree that the less discussion that goes on, the better it is for the mafia.

@Lost-and-Bewildered I went hunting through the whole thread confirming the kill/Lynch/heal timeline, and saw that post (page 17, #332) so no need to quote it. :D

Now. The reason why I was looking up the timeline is because @Kiilgore pointing fingers at me made me.... a little suspicious of him, but I didn't end up finding any solid evidence to support that theory, so for now it's mostly just a gut feeling. One interesting thing I noticed, though, in cross referencing with Joan's heal list: On day 3, I made the point that neither me or Joan was dead yet and that struck me as quite surprising. N4 and N5 were both no kills, and Joan's heals for those nights were herself, and yours truly. That strikes me as a bit too convenient to be a coincidence, but I'm not sure if it actually helps us at all.

Starlighter said:

Lynching djinn was a little different, though. I didn't (and I believe I said this or something to similar effect) want to Lynch them because of inactivity as we did last game. I wanted to Lynch them so that we didn't have to worry about factoring in the possibilities of their faction when they were only contributing another angle that was distracting us from pursuing more useful leads.

Click to expand...

understandable. However, if a town dies in the night phase while they are inactive, it would essentially confirm them innocent. This would narrow down suspects even more, essentially narrowing down 2 people (inactive while kill occurs and the killed) while effectively losing one. (Due to the potential for the inactive to come back)

Starlighter said:

Again, if this was the case, why would I want to encourage counterarguments and allow for the potential of suspicion falling on me? We were pretty much all set to abstain before I sparked the discussion again, so tbh pushing it back into activity at the last second wouldn't be the brightest move. Also considering how bleak things are looking for the town right now, I don't expect our mafia would need to be making 'desperate' moves. Also this is the second time this game I've asked for an extension, and I think we can all agree that the less discussion that goes on, the better it is for the mafia.

Click to expand...

Admittedly, this, and the pointing out of dipper as the potential as Jester are things that drag the theory down, as yes, When you suggested lynching Lost with his inactivity being the main pushing factor, it rose a red flag, whereas nobody else other than Dipper did.

Starlighter said:

Now, more than ever, I really need you guys to think hard about this. What do you think? If not Dipper, who do you suspect most strongly, and why?

Click to expand...

Because you were the only other person to really raise a red flag, and as per (part of) your quote above, I did what you asked.

Starlighter said:

Now. The reason why I was looking up the timeline is because @Kiilgore pointing fingers at me made me.... a little suspicious of him, but I didn't end up finding any solid evidence to support that theory, so for now it's mostly just a gut feeling.

Click to expand...

For curiosity's sake, was it because I pointed the finger at you that made you suspicious of me, or was it something else in there? Because, this feels a little OMGUSy (except with suspicions instead)

Do you have any problems with my attempted breakdown of Dipper's actions (from both a mafia and Jester POV)? Thoughts on the actions being plotted out by Luster initially?

--something I noticed before I hit the post reply button--

Starlighter said:

Again, if this was the case, why would I want to encourage counterarguments and allow for the potential of suspicion falling on me? We were pretty much all set to abstain before I sparked the discussion again, so tbh pushing it back into activity at the last second wouldn't be the brightest move. Also considering how bleak things are looking for the town right now, I don't expect our mafia would need to be making 'desperate' moves. Also this is the second time this game I've asked for an extension, and I think we can all agree that the less discussion that goes on, the better it is for the mafia.

Click to expand...

Something that hits me as odd here. You wanted an extension, yet you didn't respond to the points until a last moment. Essentially a potential limiter of discussion (responded to the points earlier, could have gotten more discussion in), while being the one that requests for an extension, you get to pass off as more townie. Could you explain why despite requesting the extension, you didn't reply until the near end of the phase?

--end the noticed-prepost section.--


@Daz
I have a request.
Could you please poke @LuckycoolHawk9 to post? I've seen him online (and reply to other threads) and not one reply to this thread during the whole time that the extension took place. I mean... yeah the alerts ARE buggy at times, but that's why I'm wanting you to poke him, so that he knows that the discussion is still ongoing, or that the voting phase is starting, just incase his alerts for this thread were buggy. (depending on what you decide.)